Last week in the US, the first presidential debate was held. Presidential debates are important, as they help shape the perception of where the candidates stand on vital issues such as national security, economic policies, and global outlook. For many people, there was a clear winner and a clear loser.
However, it's not always the case that we get clear winners and losers. Take stock performance in insurance, which was a mixed bag depending on various subsectors at the half-year mark.
The chart below shows the P&C industry’s stock price change since January 2024 on a by-segment basis. We can see that reinsurers, personal lines, and InsurTechs outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date. However, each group has experienced a slight performance downturn as of June 2024.
Commercial lines barely kept pace with the S&P 500 as of July, despite strong results on the surface and positive commentary. Specialty lines continue to lag the S&P 500 despite similarly good results thus far. Brokers remain roughly tied with the S&P 500, even though the cohort continued to report strong high-single digit organic growth against predictions of a significant slowdown.
Our recent research has highlighted our worries on several items related to commercial insurers' balance sheets. These include premature releases from recent accident years, continued high levels of releases from workers’ compensation, inconsistent claim trends across commercial subsegments, and general liability soft market reserve deficiencies.
We continue to expect additional reserve movements at mid-year and year-end reserve reviews, which is likely being considered by investors as well.
Below, we discuss some of the sector moves:
Top personal and reinsurer/hybrid carriers are among the highest performing so far in 2024
Drilling down to the carrier level, we can see that Arch Capital, Progressive, Chubb, and Allstate are among the few who have outperformed the S&P 500 in 2024 so far. Progressive and Allstate’s positioning is to be expected, given their impressive results showing significant year-over-year improvements.
Arch Capital and Axis similarly benefitted, but for varied reasons. Arch continues to demonstrate the link between stock multiples and value creation. On the other hand, Axis’ stock has reflected its slow climb out of the valuation hole as its business mix pivot bears some early fruit.
Additionally, Chubb’s ranking can be attributed to its strong Q1 results and the revelation of Berkshire Hathaway’s $6.7bn position in the insurer, which has further bolstered the stock’s demand among investors.
Regarding laggards, James River’s move signals investor skepticism of any deal happening, especially with the property being up for sale for some time. ProAssurance's stock move reflects continued challenges in the medical malpractice sector.
Separately on the InsurTech front, the chart below shows the year-to-date stock price change. Root continues to top the chart with a triple-digit stock price change, followed by Hippo with a 75% change and Palomar at 42%. That said, Root, Hippo and Lemonade are still trading below their IPO prices.
Compared to 2023, the P&C industry is performing markedly better, with many more insurers outperforming the S&P 500. Please see the appendix to review our full-year 2023 stock price change data.
Short interest across the board shows an uptick, but is still at low levels
Since stock moves are intrinsically linked with the short interest position, we also updated our short-interest analysis below.
Overall, P&C underwriters are still at a low level and have seen a virtually immaterial uptick. On the other hand, insurance brokers have risen materially. Brokers are often viewed as the first derivative predictors of a cycle turn, so a rising short interest could signal a potential pessimistic outlook on the longevity of current, more favorable market conditions.
On an individual stock basis, there are some noteworthy moves. HCI and Heritage reflect investors' perception of the Florida market and their stock multiples. Fidelis and Skyward’s moves reflect investor perception of the businesses’ positioning after their IPOs. SiriusPoint’s move reflects stability in the franchise, after issues at precursor companies led to a closely watched merger.
The chart below shows InsurTechs’ short interest moves, which have largely remained range-bound. This is quite surprising based on the recent stock performance many of these names have seen over 2024.
In summary, although commercial lines insurers attempt to allay social inflation and reserving concerns, stock prices reflect a measured investor stance for this group. On the short-interest front, the biggest change is the uptick in brokers' numbers, which signals skepticism about the longevity of the current market cycle.
Appendix
