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Fema's traditional reinsurance programme will attach at losses of $7bn and above.
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The model factors in the effects of climate change to date.
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High winds are expected to return to the area Tuesday, however.
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The wildfire in Ventura County was 7% contained as of Friday afternoon.
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The wildfire started Wednesday and is 0% contained so far.
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The carrier had $300mn of favorable development in Q3, mostly led by short-tail lines and ex-workers' comp.
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The firm will provide an update on November 22 to avoid holiday season.
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The commercial carrier also reported a Hurricane Milton pre-tax net loss forecast of $250mn-$300mn.
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The estimate implies a roughly $15bn homeowners’ industry loss from the hurricane.
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Arch is assuming an industry loss related to Helene in the $12bn-$14bn range.
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The NFIP can take on more debt, but climate-fueled disasters aren’t going anywhere.
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The ratings agency said higher attachment points would make 2024 hurricane claims “manageable”.