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The ratings agency has revised Mercury’s outlook from stable to negative.
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The carrier estimated January cat losses of $1.08bn, or $849mn after-tax, including the fires.
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In tandem, it pegged its net cat loss estimate from California wildfires at $160mn-$190mn.
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The carrier said 72% of those losses occurred in personal property.
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The estimate is net of its per-occurrence reinsurance program and gross of tax.
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The carrier expects to book $100mn-$140mn from the California wildfires.
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Insurers have paid $6.9bn in Southern California wildfire claims in the first four weeks of recovery.
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The loss aggregator has classified the fires as two separate events for reinsurance purposes.
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The insurance commissioner said the carrier has not shown the need for price increases.
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The losses do not change the near-term assessment of CinFin’s balance sheet strength.
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The estimate covers property and vehicle claims.
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The insurer disclosed the estimates as it seeks emergency rate hikes from regulators.